Яндекс.Метрика

Issue № 8, August 2025, article № 21

ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION PROCESSES ON THE LABOR POTENTIAL OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Labor potential is a key factor in the sustainability and competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex. Migration processes, including labor, forced and seasonal migration, have a complex and often contradictory impact on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of this potential, which requires in-depth analysis to develop an effective HR policy. There is significant uncertainty in understanding the degree and direction of the influence of various types of migration on the key parameters of the labor potential of the agro-industrial complex, such as the number of employees, age structure, skill level, labor productivity, wage level and labor shortage. The lack of quantitative estimates of this impact complicates the development of targeted regulatory measures. To conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of various types of migration, namely labor and forced, on the parameters of the labor potential of regional agro-industrial complexes of the Russian Federation. The study is based on the analysis of panel data on the regions of the Russian Federation for the period from 2010 to 2023. To assess the impact of migration, an econometric model with fixed effects (to account for regional specifics) and instrumental variables (to solve the endogeneity problem) was used. A statistically significant positive impact of migration growth on the employment dynamics and overall labor potential of the agro-industrial complex was revealed, especially pronounced in regions with negative demographic trends. Labor migration has a significant positive impact on filling vacancies and reducing the severity of the personnel shortage, but at the same time has a negative impact on the level of wages of low-skilled workers. The impact of labor migration on the long-term dynamics of the qualification structure of workers in the agro-industrial complex is ambiguous. Forced migration demonstrates a short-term negative impact on the stability of the personnel structure of the agro-industrial complex. The results emphasize the ambiguous and multifaceted nature of the impact of migration on the labor potential of the agro-industrial complex. To improve the efficiency of using labor resources, a differentiated migration and personnel policy is needed that takes into account the type of migration flows, the specifics of regions (demographic trends, structure of the agro-industrial complex) and target parameters of labor potential.

Issue № 7, July 2025, article № 3

DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY: THE PRICE ASPECT

The article considers the development of the agricultural sector of the economy. It is emphasized that over the past 10 years, agriculture has become a growing sector of the economy, ensuring an increase in the volume of production and export of agricultural products. At the same time, since 2020, a decrease in the share of agriculture in the GVA structure has been recorded. The analysis showed that Russia occupies a significant place in the global agricultural market, both in terms of total agricultural production and in terms of per capita production (especially crop products), which forms a significant export potential even in the context of sanctions, logistics problems and uncertainty. At the same time, for many commodity items, the domestic potential has not been fully realized. It seems that only by increasing production efficiency and increasing the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products will it be possible to increase the export potential in accordance with the set National Tasks in the AIC. Increased efficiency in the industry is possible, first of all, on the basis of balanced price relations between agriculture, industries providing products and services to the agricultural sector of the economy, food production and food trade. Currently, the world is seeing an increase in food prices: both producer prices of agricultural products and consumer prices for food products. The same trend can be observed in our country. It is emphasized that food inflation is now largely the driver of general inflationary processes. In this regard, price regulation in the agro-industrial complex should be based on a systemic approach. It is necessary to develop a comprehensive system of measures to regulate the price situation in the agro-industrial complex and enshrine it in a regulatory legal act.