Яндекс.Метрика

Issue № 6, June 2021, article № 5

Methodology for forecasting agricultural food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models

This paper presents the developed methodology for forecasting the agri-food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models. It includes three models: the perfect competition market model, the imperfect competition model for import-dependent markets, which also includes elements of perfect competition, and the imperfect competition model for export-oriented markets. The perfect competition model makes it possible to obtain forecasts of production, exports, imports, consumption of agri-food products, as well as producer prices. The list of predicted indicators of the other two models is wider - in addition to those listed, the imports price is predicted, the third model makes it possible to obtain predictive estimates of the supply volumes of competitors' products to the sales segment of products from a given country. The urgency of using single-product models in combination with multi-product models, such as AGLINK-COSIMO, has been substantiated. On the example of an export-oriented market model, a methodological algorithm for the implementation of empirical analysis is considered. At the same time, special attention is paid to such aspects as the analysis of the export sales segment, the evaluation of the regression equations based on the demand functions, the construction of scenario forecasts. As an example, the mid-term forecasts of the Russian poultry meat market are presented. The developed forecasting methodology is intended for governing bodies making decisions on the development of economic policy measures..

Issue № 6, June 2021, article № 12

Potential sources of increasing the quality of governance in the agroindustrial sector due to the implementation of digital decision-making systems

An effective management system in the agro-industrial complex at the present stage is impossible without the introduction of digital decision-making systems. The digital transformation of the agro-industrial complex is a prerequisite for the development of the industry and the achievement of a positive economic effect, both at the level of individual agricultural enterprises, and at the regional and federal levels. The introduction of digital decision-making systems will reduce costs in the agro-industrial complex, ensure a more profitable use of land resources, and increase the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products in the international market. The authors set a goal to identify promising sources for more effective management through the introduction of digital decision-making systems. To achieve this goal, a review of specific factors affecting the quality of management in the agro-industrial sector of the economy was carried out, the possibilities of minimizing production risks through the use of digital systems were analyzed. The empirical material of the research was the works in the field of economics, management theory, state and municipal management, business management, land law. Theoretical and methodological issues were resolved through the analysis of the regulatory framework for the digitalization of the economy, consideration of the prospects for the implementation of the departmental project "Digital Agriculture", analysis of the already implemented FSIS, digital platforms and specialized industry digital solutions used at the state, regional levels and at the level from -separate agricultural farms. The systematic approach and methods of analysis made it possible to determine and substantiate the prospects for improving the efficiency of management through digital technologies of planning, monitoring, control and decision-making in the agro-industrial complex, and to identify the sources of improving the quality of management in the era of digitalization.