Analysis and predicting of grain yields in Russia, taking into account the consequences of global warming

Issue № 7, 2022, article № 10, pages 82-86

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: ТИПИЗАЦИЯ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ЗЕРНОВЫХ С УЧЕТОМ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО ПОТЕПЛЕНИЯ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, GRAIN YIELD, FORECASTING, GLOBAL WARMING, REGIONS OF RUSSIA, INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT, REGRESSION

Abstract: The adaptation of the agricultural sector to the adverse effects of the ongoing climate change is a challenge facing modern agriculture. One of the key signs of climate change is an increase in the average annual air temperature. In the world over the past 100 years, the average air temperature has increased by 2 degrees, especially this trend has accelerated over the past 30 years. Agriculture is one of the types of economic activities sensitive to climate change. In order to develop effective mechanisms to reduce the risks of economic and other types of damage associated with global warming, it is necessary to clearly understand what difficulties each region will face individually, as well as what challenges will be typical for different groups of regions. The purpose of this study is to typologies and further characterize the potential of agriculture in regions with different levels of temperature anomalies in the summer. The main research methods were the method of statistical grouping and correlation and regression analysis. The article presents an interval distribution series that allows us to identify regions with the minimum, average and maximum levels of temperature increase in July in 2003, 2008, 2013, 2014, as well as in the period 1976-2018 in the summer. The characteristics of each group of regions in terms of the potential and conditions of functioning of agriculture in these regions are given. A regression model with a dummy variable is constructed, which makes it possible to assess the impact and further predict grain yields taking into account the observed temperature anomaly. The key conclusion of this study is the fact that a third of Russian regions with a high level of resource potential of agriculture are in the group with an high increase in temperature over the past 40 years, significantly affecting the efficiency of agriculture.

Authors: Demichev Vadim Vladimirovich, Filatov Ilia Igorevich