Cross-country analysis of food inflation dynamics in 1992-2020

Issue № 1, 2022, article № 11, pages 102-107

Section: Agricultural policy and state regulation of the agro-industrial complex

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕЖСТРАНОВОЙ АНАЛИЗ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ ИНФЛЯЦИИ В 1992-2020 ГОДЫ

Abstract: Food inflation, as well as prices’ growth for any other category of goods and services, may differ from the average inflation in an economy. The purpose of this article is to identify the factors of differences in the growth rates of food prices from the average inflation based on a sample of 160 countries for the period 1992-2020. During the study, such methods as analysis, synthesis, longitudinal method, methods of descriptive and regression analysis were used. The study shows that in half of developed countries and in three-quarters of developing countries in the period from 1992 to 2020 food prices grew faster than the average price growth in the economy. After 2003, spread between food prices increase and inflation became especially stable. The study revealed that the higher the level of development of the country, the lower the differences between the rate of increase in food prices and inflation. It is also shown in the paper that an increase in urban population share by 1 percentage point leads to an increase in food prices relative to inflation by 0.83 percentage points (the dependence is significant at the 10% level). With inflation rates higher by 1 percentage point, it is also observed by 0.11 percentage points higher differences between food prices increase and inflation (the dependence is significant at the 5% level).

Authors: Gurov Ilia Nikolaevich