Яндекс.Метрика

AGRIFOOD MARKET FORECASTING METHODOLOGY


DOI 10.33938/21122-60

Issue № 12, vol. 2, 2021, article № 6, pages 60-69

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО РЫНКА

Keywords: FORECASTING METHODOLOGY, METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO ANALYSIS, MARKETS FOR AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS, ONE-PRODUCT MODELS OF PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM, METHODS OF FORMING AN INFORMATION SYSTEM

Abstract: The deepening of the integration processes of the Russian agro-industrial complex into the system of the world market is associated with an increase in the risks of exposure to the domestic market of exogenous shocks, which contributes to the actualization of the tasks of developing a methodology for substantiating effective scenarios for the prospective development of industries and food markets in Russia. The proposed paper presents the developed methodology for forecasting the agri-food markets (AFM). The forecasting methodology includes the following main stages: methodological approaches (MA) to the analysis of the agri-food market of a given commodity group, incl. allowing to highlight the most important product segments within the group; MA to the analysis of the main types of products of this commodity group, including methodological approaches to the analysis of the state of the APR of this product type in conjunction with the assessment of the financial condition of enterprises in the industry; MA to the analysis of the market for livestock products with the turnover of live animals; MA to the analysis of the development of production in small forms (farms and private household plots, family mini-farms); development and / or adaptation of models for forecasting agri-food markets. For markets with different states of competition, one-product models of partial equilibrium were developed (perfect competition, imperfect competition with elements of perfect competition and imperfect competition), as well as developed and / or adapted multivariate regression and trend models; a methodology for the formation of a research information base, including a database of regional markets, a database of export / import and a database of elasticity’s; method for assessing elasticity’s. The developed forecasting methodology is intended for governing bodies making decisions on the development of economic policy measures

Authors: Borodin Konstantin Grigorevich