Demand for domestic poultry meat in russia and abroad

Issue № 6, 2020, article № 4, pages 31-39

Section: International relations and world agricultural experience

Language: Russian

Original language title: СПРОС НА ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОЕ МЯСО ПТИЦЫ В РОССИИ И ЗА РУБЕЖОМ

Keywords: POULTRY MEAT MARKET, CONSUMER DEMAND, SANCTIONS, EXPORT, DOLS CO INTEGRATION REGRESSION, DEMAND FACTORS ASSESSMENT, DEMAND ELASTIC TIES

Abstract: Internal and external demand indirectly stimulate the improvement of product quality, expansion of the range and lower prices of the domestic market. Poultry meat is an important source of animal protein and is most accessible to the mass consumer. In this regard the aim of the work is to analyze the internal and external demand factors for domestic poultry meat, as well as assess trends in the development of the Russian poultry market. To achieve the goal, methods of economic analysis, econometric modeling and the method of expert assessments were used. The combination of high consumer properties with a low price compared to other types of meat products is an important factor in the development of domestic demand for poultry meat. To assess the determinants of internal and external demand for domestic products, two regression models have been developed. When evaluating the co integration vector characterizing the long-term relationships between variables, the DOLS procedure was used. As factors of domestic demand, producer and import prices, household incomes, and the variable sanctions were used. As the results showed, the most important factor for domestic consumers is the price of the domestic market, an increase of 1‰ leads to a decrease in demand by 0.83‰. A 1‰ increase in household incomes contributes to an increase in demand of 0.32‰. The increase in import prices also stimulates domestic demand for domestic products by 0.29‰. An increase in sanctions pressure of 1‰ leads to an increase in domestic demand by 0.19‰. The decrease in the price of the domestic market occurs as a result of internal competition, competition with imports, and also under the influence of the policy of retail chains, which envisages the coverage of the widest sections of the population. In the current conditions of saturation of the domestic market, low price is an important factor in the development of domestic exports. An assessment of the determinants of external demand for domestic products showed that a decrease in its price by 1‰ leads to an increase in external demand by 5.3‰. A pandemic analysis showed a possible reduction in domestic demand. The relative decline in world trade will hold back the fairly high growth rates of Russian exports.

Authors: Borodin Konstantin Grigorevich