AN INDICATOR-DYNAMIC METHOD FOR ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INSTITUTIONS OF THE PENAL SYSTEM

Issue № 8, 2026, article № 31, pages 333-341

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИНДИКАТИВНО-ДИНАМИЧЕСКАЯ МЕТОДИКА ОЦЕНКИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННЫХ УЧРЕЖДЕНИЙ УИС

Keywords: ECONOMIC SECURITY, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, PENAL SYSTEM, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INDICATOR ASSESSMENT, THRESHOLD NORMALISATION, TREND, ENTROPY METHOD, FISHBURN RULE, GEOMETRIC AGGREGATION, STOP-EVENT

Abstract: An assessment method is developed for the economic security of sustainable development of penal-system production institutions engaged in agro-industrial output. Conventional financial ratios do not reflect the dual economic and social function of these institutions, sector-specific biological risks, or the probability of interruption of critical processes. The method combines eight functional blocks and 32 indicators, four-zone threshold normalisation, a three-year trend adjustment, Fishburn expert ranking, information-entropy weighting, and weighted geometric aggregation. The integral score is supplemented by a non-compensatory cap and stop-events. A simulation test produced an index of 0.887 for a balanced profile. With one critical block, the unadjusted value of 0.829 was capped at 0.699, preventing favourable indicators in other subsystems from concealing a threat of production disruption. The novelty lies in integrating current condition, dynamics, and recovery capacity in a decomposable model and combining compensatory aggregation with hard critical constraints. The toolkit is intended for early warning, inter-institutional benchmarking, and evidence-based allocation of resources.

Authors: Rodionov Alexey Vladimirovich