RUSSIA IN THE GLOBAL POTATO MARKET: PARADOXES OF PRODUCTION AND FOREIGN TRADE

Issue № 8, 2026, article № 25, pages 279-288

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: РОССИЯ НА МИРОВОМ РЫНКЕ КАРТОФЕЛЯ: ПАРАДОКСЫ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ

Keywords: POTATO, POTATO MARKET, EXPORT, IMPORT, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, GROSS HARVEST, EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD SECURITY, RUSSIA

Abstract: This article examines the current state and development trends of the potato market in the context of global change. The dynamics of Russian potato production, export, and import are analyzed, revealing structural imbalances and the "paradox of plenty": an inverse relationship between the growth of gross harvests and export revenues. Using correlation and regression analysis, the impact of internal (gross harvest, prices) and external (exchange rate) factors on exports is quantified. Forecast trends for foreign trade development are substantiated, demonstrating that the reduction in imports is achieved through import substitution policies, while exports are declining, indicating Russia's loss of competitiveness. Strategic recommendations are formulated for the transition from an extensive to an intensive model focused on quality, processing, and supply diversification. The aim of this paper is to identify the functioning and development of the potato segment of the agrifood market in Russia and globally, as well as to identify and substantiate the key factors influencing the export of tuber crops from Russia. The study identified and quantified the inverse relationship between the gross potato harvest and the value of its exports. The system of factors determining the dynamics of export revenues was refined: weak sensitivity of exports to price fluctuations was demonstrated, and a moderate positive correlation with the US dollar exchange rate was established. Contrasting trends in the development of foreign trade operations were identified. A set of strategic recommendations was developed, aimed at transitioning from an extensive to an intensive model of potato farming development.

Authors: Pilipenko Fedor Vyacheslavovich, Vorobyova Natalia Valeryevna, Bannikova Natalia Vladimirovna