APPLICATION OF TREND ANALYSIS IN ASSESSING BUSINESS CONTINUITY RISKS FOR COMMERCIAL COMPANIES

Issue № 7, 2025, article № 5, pages 36-46

Section: Investment and innovation in agriculture

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ ТРЕНДОВОГО АНАЛИЗА ДЛЯ ОЦЕНКИ РИСКОВ НЕПРЕРЫВНОСТИ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ КОММЕРЧЕСКОГО ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ

Keywords: BUSINESS CONTINUITY, RISK ASSESSMENT, FORECASTING, RISK MANAGEMENT, TREND ANALYSIS, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FINANCIAL INDICATORS

Abstract: This article explores the key aspects of business continuity risk management for commercial enterprises in alignment with the ISO 31000 standard. Through a case study of PJSC "X5 Corporate Center," the author examines financial and operational risks jeopardangering business sustainability, including liquidity risks, over-leveraging, and diminishing financial stability. Particular emphasis is placed on the predictive assessment of compliance with banking covenants (net debt/EBITDA), the dynamics of accounts receivable turnover, and the impact of dividend policy on financial stability. The study employs quantitative methods of analysis, including trend modeling, scenario forecasting, and stress testing. The results indicate that the company’s current debt burden remains within acceptable thresholds; however, long-term risks persist due to reliance on borrowed financing and potential slowdowns in EBITDA growth.

Authors: Gasanova Patimat Magomedovna