PRODUCTION OF PRODUCTS IN PEASANT FARMS: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

Issue № 4, 2024, article № 12, pages 138-151

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОИЗВОДСТВО ПРОДУКЦИИ В ФЕРМЕРСКИХ ХОЗЯЙСТВАХ: АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗ

Keywords: K(F)H, MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST, PRODUCTION, MARKETS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, LOCAL RURAL ECONOMY

Abstract: As part of a brief analysis of the main markets for crop and livestock products in Russia, forecasts for the development of production on farms of selected types of products for the period until 2030 were made. To assess the medium-term forecast two methods of quantitative assessment of the forecast were used: linear approximation and autoregression. Forecasts showed the most dynamic growth in farm production in the medium term for the following products/product groups: sugar beets, open ground vegetables, fruits and berries, potato, corn; medium height: cattle meat, milk, lamb and goat meat, low growth: chicken egg, sunflower, poultry meat, pork. Issues related to forecasting the development of production on farms by type of product have not previously been considered in the scientific literature.

Authors: Borodin Konstantin Grigorevich