SCENARIOS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN DESIGN OF CARBON NEUTRALITY OF FOOD SYSTEMS

Issue № 3, 2023, article № 10, pages 102-111

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРИИ ПОТРЕБИТЕЛЬСКОГО ПОВЕДЕНИЯ ПРИ ПРОЕКТИРОВАНИИ УГЛЕРОДНОЙ НЕЙТРАЛЬНОСТИ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: AGRO-FOOD SYSTEMS, SUSTAINABILITY, CONSUMPTION, REGIONS OF RUSSIA, FOOD PRODUCTS, LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION, SCENARIO, FORECAST

Abstract: Rising food needs associated with global population growth are disrupting the sustainability of food ecosystems. The paper analyzes existing approaches to developing scenarios of consumer behavior abroad, it is determined that the main factors in the long-term dynamics of food demand are the population size, its income, the level of urbanization, demographic composition, and access to markets. The article shows that the development of methodology and model tools for planning and designing efficient and sustainable food systems with a low carbon footprint should be based on a scenario analysis of food consumption options. The obtained forecast values of the parameters of average per capita food consumption in Russia for 2030 and 2040, based on econometric models of demand and scenario assumptions about the consumer behavior of the population of Russian regions, will make it possible to carry out further scenario calculations of the trajectories of low-carbon transformation of regional agri-food systems in Russia

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna