Яндекс.Метрика

Issue № 6, June 2021, article № 5

Methodology for forecasting agricultural food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models

This paper presents the developed methodology for forecasting the agri-food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models. It includes three models: the perfect competition market model, the imperfect competition model for import-dependent markets, which also includes elements of perfect competition, and the imperfect competition model for export-oriented markets. The perfect competition model makes it possible to obtain forecasts of production, exports, imports, consumption of agri-food products, as well as producer prices. The list of predicted indicators of the other two models is wider - in addition to those listed, the imports price is predicted, the third model makes it possible to obtain predictive estimates of the supply volumes of competitors' products to the sales segment of products from a given country. The urgency of using single-product models in combination with multi-product models, such as AGLINK-COSIMO, has been substantiated. On the example of an export-oriented market model, a methodological algorithm for the implementation of empirical analysis is considered. At the same time, special attention is paid to such aspects as the analysis of the export sales segment, the evaluation of the regression equations based on the demand functions, the construction of scenario forecasts. As an example, the mid-term forecasts of the Russian poultry meat market are presented. The developed forecasting methodology is intended for governing bodies making decisions on the development of economic policy measures..

Issue № 6, June 2021, article № 12

Potential sources of increasing the quality of governance in the agroindustrial sector due to the implementation of digital decision-making systems

An effective management system in the agro-industrial complex at the present stage is impossible without the introduction of digital decision-making systems. The digital transformation of the agro-industrial complex is a prerequisite for the development of the industry and the achievement of a positive economic effect, both at the level of individual agricultural enterprises, and at the regional and federal levels. The introduction of digital decision-making systems will reduce costs in the agro-industrial complex, ensure a more profitable use of land resources, and increase the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products in the international market. The authors set a goal to identify promising sources for more effective management through the introduction of digital decision-making systems. To achieve this goal, a review of specific factors affecting the quality of management in the agro-industrial sector of the economy was carried out, the possibilities of minimizing production risks through the use of digital systems were analyzed. The empirical material of the research was the works in the field of economics, management theory, state and municipal management, business management, land law. Theoretical and methodological issues were resolved through the analysis of the regulatory framework for the digitalization of the economy, consideration of the prospects for the implementation of the departmental project "Digital Agriculture", analysis of the already implemented FSIS, digital platforms and specialized industry digital solutions used at the state, regional levels and at the level from -separate agricultural farms. The systematic approach and methods of analysis made it possible to determine and substantiate the prospects for improving the efficiency of management through digital technologies of planning, monitoring, control and decision-making in the agro-industrial complex, and to identify the sources of improving the quality of management in the era of digitalization.

Issue № 6, June 2021, article № 13

State of production and prospects for development of russian export of dairy products to saudi arabia

Providing population with the required quantity and quality of food is a priority of Russian national agrarian policy as that of many countries. Milk and dairy products play a vital role in the food supply system for all sectors of the population. With the saturation of the domestic market and ensuring food security for all of the branches of Russian agro-industrial complex, the developing of export to foreign markets and strengthening Russian position in the system of international food trade becomes a priority. The growing of Russian export of agricultural products in recent years, within the framework of the federal project, requires diversification of goods and geographical structure. One of the demanded and promising areas of goods diversification is the development of export of milk and dairy products. Despite the unresolved problem of full self-sufficiency of milk and dairy products, Russia has enough production potential in the dairy farming industry to expand the export of milk and dairy products within the framework of the implementation of the priority federal project "Export of agricultural products", as evidenced by the positive dynamics in the volume of production and export of this industry products. In addition, Russia has unique opportunities for the production of organic dairy products, the demand for which is growing in the world. Saudi Arabian market is the largest consumer of food in general and dairy products in particular in the Persian Gulf. The increasing growth and income of Saudi Arabian population leads to increase in demand for high-quality dairy products that could be satisfied by Russian producers. The removal of administrative barriers and obtaining permission to export milk and dairy products to Saudi Arabia give opportunities for export development. The unique geopolitical, social and cultural influence of Saudi Arabia on Muslim countries makes this market strategically important for the further development of Russian food export to Asian markets.