This article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the causes of youth migration and the shortage of qualified personnel in the regions of the Siberian Federal District. Using statistical data analysis methods, we assessed key areas that determine human resource potential: the demographic situation, the state of the vocational education system, and the actual conditions in the regional labor market. It was established that, against the backdrop of persistent depopulation and rural population decline, a structural crisis is occurring in the secondary vocational education system, while traditional tools (such as targeted training) are demonstrating extremely low effectiveness. An analysis of vacancies in the agro-industrial complex of Russia revealed a critical imbalance: despite growing demand for personnel, offers with uncompetitive salaries predominate. The study's results demonstrate the systemic nature of the problem, creating a scientifically sound basis for the development of differentiated mechanisms for regional human resources policy.
In the context of intensifying technological modernization and structural changes within regional economies, agrarian enterprises face the necessity of accelerated organizational transformation. However, the success of such transformations largely depends on employees’ readiness for change and the degree of resistance arising at individual, group, and organizational levels. The aim of this study is to identify the most effective strategies for managing organizational change in agrarian enterprises, taking into account resistance factors and the regional specifics of rural development. The methodological framework of the research includes the systematization of change resistance factors based on a comprehensive literature review, as well as a structured survey conducted among future managers of the agrarian sector. To assess the applicability of five key change management strategies, methods of descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, and correlation analysis were employed. Based on 60 taxonomies of the “resistance factor–strategy” type, the study identifies strategies that most effectively address fears, uncertainty, lack of trust, and structural barriers within agrarian organizations. The findings demonstrate a significant differentiation in the effectiveness of various strategies, as well as the presence of both synergistic and conflicting combinations of management approaches. Negotiation and agreement strategies were found to be the most effective in situations involving perceived threats to job security, whereas education and communication, employee participation, and supportive measures demonstrated varying relevance depending on psychological and organizational sources of resistance. Correlation analysis confirmed the necessity of flexible and context-sensitive application of strategies, considering the specific characteristics of agrarian enterprises, including seasonality, resource constraints, and the conservatism of organizational culture. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of a set of recommendations for managers of agrarian enterprises aimed at enhancing the success of organizational change, reducing employee resistance, and strengthening the adaptive capacity of farms in the face of regional development challenges. The obtained results may be used in designing modernization strategies for agrarian enterprises and improving management systems within the agricultural sector.
The purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for the development of human resources for the digital agro-industrial complex. The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the problem of human resources for the digital transformation of the Russian agro-industrial complex. Based on statistical and expert analysis, a systemic crisis has been identified, characterized by a growing gap between the demand for new digital competencies and the capabilities of the labor market and the education system. It has been established that, despite the presence of obvious drivers for digitalization, such as the high receptivity to innovation among agricultural holdings and the proven economic efficiency of technologies, its large-scale implementation is hindered by infrastructure limitations, high costs of solutions, and, most importantly, a severe shortage of personnel. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the disproportion in the distribution of ICT specialists across economic sectors. Based on expert assessments, the analysis reveals a critically low level of digital skills among current agricultural specialists and a fundamental gap between the programs offered by agricultural universities and the demands of the market. The study presents a forecast for the growth of the demand for digital specialists in the agricultural sector until 2029 and identifies a list of new and transforming professions. The study concludes that the shortage of skilled professionals is a major barrier to digitalization. The study proposes a three-level solution model (government, education, and business) aimed at synchronizing technology investments with advanced human capital investments as a prerequisite for achieving technological sovereignty in the industry.
В статье представлены результаты комплексного корреляционного и регрессионного анализа взаимосвязей между долей трудоустройства выпускников аграрных вузов в АПК и рядом параметров социально-экономического характера по 35 регионам России на основе официальных данных за 2025 год. Рассмотрены такие параметры, как средняя заработная плата в регионе в целом и в сельскохозяйственном секторе региона, нехватка кадров в АПК региона, доля сельского хозяйства в ВРП. Теснота связи между данными характеристиками оказалась не зашкаливающей, что свидетельствует о том, что на направление трудоустройства выпускников оказывает влияние гораздо большее количество факторов, которые авторы планируют изучить в дальнейшем. Вместе с тем результаты кластерного анализа позволили выделить 4 группы регионов, среди которых одна требует развития кадровой, образовательной и экономической политики с целью снижения доли нехватки кадров и повышения привлекательности сельскохозяйственной отрасли для молодежи. Авторами сделаны рекомендации и выводы по исследованию.
The relevance of the topic of the article is due to the role of rural areas in ensuring food security and labor potential in Russia, the presence of structural imbalances in the labor market, which are not always noticeable due to positive macroeconomic dynamics. Understanding the specifics of rural employment and its adaptation strategies is necessary to develop effective public policy measures aimed at sustainable rural development. Despite an overall decrease in rural unemployment from 6,8% to 4,7% by 2023 compared to 2019 and an increase in employment, structural imbalances persist and deepen. There is a double demographic problem: the aging of the labor force (only 15,3% of the population over working age are economically active) It is combined with a high unemployment rate among young people (especially graduates of worker training programs (8,2%). A significant part of labor activity is realized in the unpaid sector, primarily in the form of production of products for own use, which performs the function of a social amortizer. There is a clear gender specialization in the informal labor sector: men dominate in the procurement of various types of fuels and construction, women in the production of household goods and agricultural activities. The results obtained in the article are important for the formation of a differentiated policy for the development of rural areas of the country. They point to the need to synchronize the system of vocational education with the needs of the rural economy, create modern jobs for young professionals, and provide institutional support to households as the most important adaptation strategy for rural households.
Against the backdrop of sanctions pressure, food security is no longer an exclusively agricultural issue; it has become a complex factor in the economic and political sovereignty of a state. The relevance of this topic is driven by the need to find new theoretical and methodological foundations for ensuring the sustainability of the agro-industrial complex, which faces limited access to seeds, equipment, technologies, and external markets. The goal is to analyze key approaches to ensuring food security and propose recommendations aimed at adapting the industry to structural challenges. The sources studied reveal contradictions: official forecasts emphasize the fulfillment of most of the parameters of the Characterized Security Doctrine, but independent experts point to a decrease in growth rates and systemic risks associated with technological backwardness and financial instability of economic entities. The author concludes that food security under sanctions should be viewed through the prism of strategic autonomy, diversification of production and export areas, and accelerated modernization of the industry.
The article is devoted to the most important and profound changes taking place in the agricultural sector of Russia. The specifics of the analyzed shifts are formulated. The relevance of the issue is determined by the current conditions of functioning of agriculture and the entire economy. The uncertainty of development conditions has increased. In this regard, situational regulation of the agricultural sector is increasing, responding to unforeseen changes. The analysis examines the structural changes associated with the revolution in technology, climate, environmental and social changes, the geopolitical situation and some other factors. This diversity determines the need for consistency of all aspects of structural transformation in terms of its main goals. At the same time, the emphasis is on adaptation to new conditions on a long-term basis, as the transformation will take decades. It shows both the most important trends of transformation, as well as the main approaches to accelerating it and increasing the sustainability of development, the role of government and business in the implementation of agricultural policy. With this in mind, the risks that significantly affect the success of the structural transformation are formulated.
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to adapt the Russian agro-industrial complex to changing conditions of foreign economic activity under the influence of unprecedented sanctions restrictions of 2022-2024. The aim of the study is to develop an economic-mathematical model for assessing the potential opportunities to increase exports of agricultural products of the Russian Federation through diversification of the geography of foreign trade partners. The research methodology is based on the application of correlation-regression analysis, multivariate statistical data processing methods, construction of integral indices of export potential, analysis of dynamic series of foreign trade turnover for the period 2022-2024. The information base consisted of data from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Center "Agroexport", materials of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, statistics of Russia's foreign trade partners. The results of the study are presented by the author's economic-mathematical model of dependence of potential opportunities for export expansion on three key factors: the index of diversification of the geographical structure of exports, the coefficient of substitution of traditional markets with new supply directions, the index of logistical accessibility of target markets. A statistically significant dependence of export potential on the degree of diversification of trading partners with a coefficient of determination of 0.847 has been proven. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of applying the developed model to forecast export revenues of the agro-industrial complex under various scenarios for the development of foreign economic relations under ongoing sanctions restrictions.
Within the framework of the study, a methodological approach to building a proactive management system for the agricultural sector, synthesizing market mechanisms with the formation of prerequisites for progressive economic development, was proposed. Based on the material of the North Caucasus macroregion, the degree of proactive management paradigm of state regulation was analyzed and priority areas of the relevant sectoral policy were identified. The specificity of the study lies in the interpretation of proactivity as an attribute of the system, determined by the behavior of its actors, while projective stimulation is interpreted as the process of generating motivational incentives to transform the conditions for the functioning of the industry. The specificity of the study lies in the interpretation of proactivity as an attribute of the system, determined by the behavior of its actors, while projective stimulation is interpreted as the process of generating motivational incentives to transform the conditions for the functioning of the industry. In conclusion, the advantages of proactive development are highlighted, forms and methods for implementing a proactive system are proposed, its main stages are highlighted, it is proposed to consider the transformation of regulation in the direction of acceleration of anticipation as an instrument of progress.
At the current stage of economic science development, interest in issues related to lending to the Russian agricultural sector has significantly increased. The agricultural industry operates under conditions of sanctions pressure and import substitution policy, which requires a comprehensive scientific approach and analysis. The development of the industry is influenced by many patterns, one of which is the significant dependence of production and innovation renewal on the efficiency of lending systems. The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the specifics of lending to the Russian agricultural sector in the context of import substitution policy. The reliability and validity of the presented data is achieved due to its methodically wide coverage: this includes analysis of scientific literature, statistics, official documents of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, expert assessments, as well as content analysis of specialized Internet sites. Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization has imposed characteristic restrictions on national instruments of financial support for agricultural sectors. The application of a number of counter-sanctions measures to unfriendly states has also imposed severe restrictions on the supply of imported agricultural products. All this leads to an increasing role of economic protectionism and the need for broad import substitution mechanisms, which, in turn, requires sustained financial support for the agro-industrial sector. However, as the researchers note, the existing support remains at a low level. An analysis of the reasons for the lack of effectiveness of support areas shows that the transfer of authority to stimulate enterprises to the regional level becomes a source of regional imbalances, forming low inter-budgetary effectiveness. The paper identifies the causes and mechanisms of such imbalances. It is concluded that the well-established system of subsidizing interest rates on loans in the regions often negatively affects the economic dynamics of agriculture, and the main prerequisite for this is opaque budget expenditures, the specifics of the transfer of subsidies and the regionalization of support, all of which leads to inefficient ownership of public resources and often violates the principles of fair competition. As a result, mainly large structures gain an advantage. Methodology: the reliability of the conclusions and the correctness of the entire study are based on a comparison of data from scientific literature, government statistics, and documents from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, expert reviews and materials from professional Internet resources. The main patterns of development of the Russian agricultural sector include: seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand, dependence on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, the impact on the dynamics of the import component, the regional specifics of support, as well as the relationship between the scale of lending and financial results. Of particular importance is the level of concessional loans available and the profitability of companies. Lending continues to be a crucial source of replenishment of working capital to ensure the smooth operation of agricultural producers.