Scenario forecasting the development of regional agrofood systems under the conditions of climate risks and uncertainty

Issue № 9, 2022, article № 10, pages 86-95

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ В УСЛОВИЯХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ РИСКОВ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТЕЙ

Keywords: FORECASTING, SCENARIOS, MODELING, CLIMATE CHANGE, RISKS, AGRO-FOOD SYSTEMS

Abstract: Complex socio-ecological-economic systems, such as regional agri-food systems, are multidimensional and unpredictable, especially in the long term. To overcome these difficulties, in the world forecasting practice, a scenario approach is used in combination with mathematical modeling methods to assess probable development options. Models of agri-food systems are needed for effective management of agricultural production, which is in a difficult situation of the need to adapt to global climate change and low-carbon transformation of the entire system of food production and consumption.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna