Scenario analysis of the effect of climate change for russian agriculture

Issue № 6, 2021, article № 8, pages 74-85

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА ДЛЯ РОССИЙСКОГО СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА

Keywords: CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, GROSS PRODUCTION, CASH FLOWS, FOREIGN TRADE, FEDERAL SUBJECTS, PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM, VIAPI MODEL

Abstract: The article presents the analysis of four climate change scenarios, differing in the intensity of warming (represented by the location of natural-agricultural zones) and the level of world prices for agricultural products. The analysis is carried out using a partial equilibrium model in the Russia's regional wholesale markets of agricultural products, based on the PF+PE-architecture (the VIAPI model). In conditions when in all Russia's federal subjects rational nutritional norms are on average observed, the growth of world prices for agricultural products under the influence of the climatic factor is not favorable for Russia, since the increase in import costs exceeds the additional benefits from exports. Estimates of changes in the volume of production of certain types of products at the sub national level are mostly negligible and unstable to such differences in scenario conditions that are secondary to the problem being solved. The most important of the findings is that the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of consumption, commodity flows and prices can be significant even when there is little impact on production.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich, SHishkina Ekaterina Alekseevna