Methodology for forecasting agricultural food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models

Issue № 6, 2021, article № 5, pages 52-62

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РЫНКОВ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ НА ОСНОВЕ ОДНОПРОДУКТОВЫХ МОДЕЛЕЙ ЧАСТИЧНОГО РАВНОВЕСИЯ

Keywords: FORECASTING METHODOLOGY, AGRI-FOOD MARKETS, SINGLE-PRODUCT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, POULTRY MEAT

Abstract: This paper presents the developed methodology for forecasting the agri-food products markets based on single-product partial equilibrium models. It includes three models: the perfect competition market model, the imperfect competition model for import-dependent markets, which also includes elements of perfect competition, and the imperfect competition model for export-oriented markets. The perfect competition model makes it possible to obtain forecasts of production, exports, imports, consumption of agri-food products, as well as producer prices. The list of predicted indicators of the other two models is wider - in addition to those listed, the imports price is predicted, the third model makes it possible to obtain predictive estimates of the supply volumes of competitors' products to the sales segment of products from a given country. The urgency of using single-product models in combination with multi-product models, such as AGLINK-COSIMO, has been substantiated. On the example of an export-oriented market model, a methodological algorithm for the implementation of empirical analysis is considered. At the same time, special attention is paid to such aspects as the analysis of the export sales segment, the evaluation of the regression equations based on the demand functions, the construction of scenario forecasts. As an example, the mid-term forecasts of the Russian poultry meat market are presented. The developed forecasting methodology is intended for governing bodies making decisions on the development of economic policy measures..

Authors: Borodin Konstantin Grigorevich