IMPACT OF THE COVID – 19 PANDEMIC ON AGRICULTURE FORECASTS

DOI 10.33938/215-96

Issue № 5, 2021, article № 8, pages 96-105

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID – 19 НА ПРОГНОЗЫ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА

Keywords: COVID-19, AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL MARKET, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS, NEW CORONAVIRUS INFECTION

Abstract: The outbreak of a new coronavirus infection, which escalated into the COVID-19 pandemic, caused significant damage to the entire global economy, and the agriculture sector was no exception. Restrictive measures taken everywhere - practically by all countries of the world - have caused a decrease in economic activity, blocking of trade ties, and the destruction of value chains between countries. The unpredictability of the duration of the pandemic period and the scale of its consequences could not but affect the previously predicted scenarios for the development of economic sectors, including the agricultural sector. The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the global prospects for the development of the agricultural sector at two levels - global and national - and assess this impact, primarily on the Russian agricultural market. It is emphasized that the new coronavirus infection has added to the list of unpredictable factors in the agricultural sector, which have the property of uncertainty in their quantitative impact on agricultural markets. Inevitably, the infection caused the need to adjust the existing or develop a special scenario for the development of the agricultural sector, based on the study of the macroeconomic consequences of the pandemic. At the same time, attention should be paid to all links of the value chain as a system of interrelated elements of food production. It is argued that the scale of the consequences of the impact of COVID-19 is determined not only by the duration of the pandemic period, but also by the depth of its destructive effects, the speed of recovery of national economies from the crisis state, the dynamics of achieving the planned macroeconomic indicators and carrying out economic transformations. It is concluded that in the context of the pandemic crisis, Russia, as a country whose agriculture is less exposed to the negative impact of the new coronavirus infection, should not miss the chance to expand its presence in foreign agricultural markets.

Authors: Izmailova Marina Alekseevna, Khashir Aslan Azmetovich, Braginets IUrii Nikolaevich