Change in consumption of basic food in russia in modeling climate change

Issue № 3, 2021, article № 10, pages 77-84

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕ ОСНОВНЫХ ВИДОВ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ В РОССИИ ПРИ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТА

Keywords: CLIMATE CHANGE, VIAPI MODEL, CONSUMPTION VOLUME, AGRICULTURE, WHOLESALE PRICES

Abstract: The article examines the change in prices and consumption of the main types of food in the scenario of a shift in agricultural zones by 30‰ and an increase in world prices for the main types of food products associated with climate change. The scenario is carried out in the VIAPI partial equilibrium model (PF + PE architecture). The calculations are based on data from 2015-2019. It is concluded that this scenario leads to a loss of marginal income in the amount of 716 billion rubles compared to the baseline scenario, where climate change and growth in external prices are not considered. The losses are attributed to the need to import more expensive products, primarily vegetables. At the same time the growth in imports is not offset by the growth in export earnings. As a result of the solution obtained according to the scenario, the regions are identified where changes in prices and volumes of consumption in comparison with demand are the largest. Moscow is among the leaders with the growth of prices for almost all products in the range from 5 to 21‰. Prices for sugar beet and milk are most sensitive to simulated changes within the scenario. Basically, as a consequence of the modeled climate changes prices for these products in many regions decrease, which leads to an increase in their consumption.

Authors: Gataulina Ekaterina Aleksandrovna, Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich