Forecast estimates of winter wheat yield dynamics during the implementation of arid climate scenario in the regions of russia

Issue № 3, 2021, article № 8, pages 62-67

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ ДИНАМИКИ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ОЗИМОЙ ПШЕНИЦЫ ПРИ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ АРИДНОГО КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОГО СЦЕНАРИЯ В РЕГИОНАХ РОССИИ

Keywords: CLIMATE, SCENARIOS, REGIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, WINTER WHEAT, FORECASTING

Abstract: The article considers a quantitative assessment of the responses of wheat yield in the regions of the Russian to global climate change in the long term (up to 2100). The parameters of the functions of wheat productivity from the average July temperatures in Russia as a whole have been determined. Estimates of changes in the average yield of winter wheat up to 2100 are given when the arid climate scenario is realized. The calculations were carried out under the assumption that the technologies used in grain production remain unchanged. It has been established that the spatial dynamics of the yield change is not the same.

Authors: Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna