Forecast of change of crop areas in the territory of non-chernozem economic zone of russia for period up to 2026

Issue № 1, 2021, article № 6, pages 62-66

Section: Land use and land relations

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПОСЕВНЫХ ПЛОЩАДЕЙ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ НЕЧЕРНОЗЕМНОЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЫ РОССИИ НА ПЕРИОД ДО 2026 ГОДА

Keywords: NON-CHERNOZEM ECONOMIC ZONE, FORECAST OF CHANGES OF CROP AREAS, THE MOST VALUABLE AGRICULTURAL LAND, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract: The article examines the dynamics of the withdrawal of arable land from agricultural use in the subjects of the Non-Chernozem Economic Zone of the Russian Federation. Using the tools of statistical analysis, the authors made a forecast of changes in crop areas until 2026. According to the results of the forecast, we expect an increase in acreage in the Non-Chernozem region by 100 thousand ha - 0.7‰ to the current area. An increase in acreage is expected in the regions of the Central Economic Region - Bryansk, Tula, Ryazan, and other regions. Reduction of areas is expected in the regions of the Northern and North-Western economic regions. Dairy farming is proposed as the main direction for the development of agriculture in the study area.

Authors: Polunin Gennadii Andreevich, Alakoz Valerii Vladimirovich, CHerkashin Kirill Igorevich