Яндекс.Метрика

METHODS AND MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON THE CROP YIELD -FOREIGN EXPERIENCE


DOI 10.33938/209-14

Issue № 9, 2020, article № 2, pages 14-19

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДЫ И МОДЕЛИ ОЦЕНКИ ВЛИЯНИЯ КЛИМАТА НА УРОЖАЙНОСТЬ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР - ЗАРУБЕЖНЫЙ ОПЫТ

Keywords: CROPS YIELD MODELING, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, CLIMATE CHANGE, REGIONAL LEVEL, UNCERTAINTY OF RESULTS

Abstract: Climate change has a significant and direct impact on food security and the risk of global hunger. Research conducted by foreign authors shows that climate change itself will reduce the global production of four main crops: wheat, corn, soy and rice in the main areas of their cultivation by reducing their productivity. To minimize damage from the negative impact of climate change, it is necessary to identify spatial effects and yield responses to climate challenges in the long term. The tool for this assessment is a scenario analysis of crop yields based on economic and mathematical models. The main problem in developing yield models at the regional level is the presence of a high level of uncertainty associated with the assessment ofpossible climate changes over long-term time intervals. The article considers approaches and methods that reduce the uncertainty of the obtained results of crop yield modeling, which are currently used abroad.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna