Assessment of the regional dynamics of the cost of winter cereals for forecast of the development of agri-food systems

Issue № 5, 2020, article № 14, pages 137-145

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ СЕБЕСТОИМОСТИ ОЗИМЫХ ЗЕРНОВЫХ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: PRODUCTION COSTS, WINTER CEREALS, DEFLATORS, AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS, FORECASTING OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

Abstract: To forecast the development of agri-food systems an analysis was made of the dynamics of cost, changes in its structure and individual cost items of winter grain in the regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2010-2016 on the data of consolidated annual reports of agricultural organizations. It is shown that changes in the official reporting form 9-apk did not make it possible to form homogeneous series for cost analysis over long periods. The grouping of regions by actual cost of production revealed that the main production, since 2013, has steadily concentrated in the groups with a cost price of 400 to 599 rubles/center despite of inflation (in prices 2016 – in the group of 500-599 rubles/center). An assessment of cost growth due to changes in prices for resources and services purchased by agricultural organizations was made. It was revealed that in spite of significant changes in climatic and economic conditions that occurred during this period, the structure of the cost of winter cereals practically did not change, as well as the intervals of the shares of significant cost items in the main producing regions. Groupings of regions by the share of expenses for the maintenance of fixed assets and labor remuneration showed that regions with intervals above average Russian values were not the main producers. When forecasting agri-food systems in these regions, it is recommended to approximate their cost structure for winter grains to the average Russian. The top three producers of winter cereals, stably accounting for more than 40‰ of production, are the same, despite the differences in weather conditions in different years of the period under consideration. These are Krasnodar, Stavropol Territory and Rostov Region. It is on these key regions that it is necessary to pay the main attention when forecasting winter grain production in agri-food systems.

Authors: Gataulina Ekaterina Aleksandrovna, SHishkina Ekaterina Alekseevna