FORECASTING OF DRINKING MILK PRODUCTION IN RUSSIA

DOI 10.33938/1911-88

Issue № 11, 2019, article № 10, pages 88-99

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПИТЬЕВОГО МОЛОКА В РОССИИ

Keywords: FORECAST, DRINKING MILK, PER CAPITA INCOME, MILK POWDER, RAW MILK, PALM OIL, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS, REGRESSION MODELS, TREND FORECAST, FORECAST ESTIMATE

Abstract: The article presents the forecast for the production of drinking milk in Russia for the period 2018-2025. Statistical data on the dynamics of the production of drinking milk from 2000 to 2017 show an increase from 2.8 million tons. up to 5.3 million tons Since drinking milk is a vital food product, the aim of the study, such as forecasting its production for several years in advance, must be of interest. The production of drinking milk depends on many factors. Several factors that could affect the volume of production were identified. This is the average per capita annual income of the population, the production of raw and dried milk, the import of dried milk, the average price per ton of raw milk, per kilogram of drinking milk, the volume of palm oil imports. As research methods, statistical methods were used, in particular, correlation-regression analysis and forecast of time series by the trend component. A two-factor linear regression model was built with independent variables - income and the sum of production and import of milk powder. Based on this model, a forecast was made for the production of drinking milk, which was compared with a forecast for milk according to the trend model. A comparative statistical evaluation of these two forecasting results showed the advantage of the regression model.

Authors: Lichman Aelita Afanasevna