Scenario forecasting of the vologda oblast vegetable growing development in the long term

Issue № 7, 2019, article № 14, pages 112-118

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЦЕНАРНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ ОВОЩЕВОДСТВА ВОЛОГОДСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ В ДОЛГОСРОЧНОЙ ПЕРСПЕКТИВЕ

Keywords: VEGETABLE GROWING, SCENARIO FORECASTING, FOOD SECURITY, DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATIONS, GLOBAL BREAKTHROUGH

Abstract: The relevance of the chosen research topic is that, by 2020, despite the provisions of the Food Security Doctrine, the level of provision of the population of most regions of the country with their own food products remains at a very low level. So in the Vologda region own production of vegetables is below the recommended normal by 60‰ per capita, the same situation on meat. Increasing the level of food security in the region and bringing the normal of vegetable consumption to those recommended at the expense of their own resources is possible when the industry transitions to an innovative development path. The study presents a methodology for predicting the development of vegetable production, taking into account its specificity, based on the method of expert assessments, regression and cognitive analysis. Characteristic given one of the innovative scenarios for the development of the “global breakthrough” industry is given according to five criteria: government support, educational activity, social development, innovation activity and the general dynamics of agricultural development. Description is given of the stages of development of vegetable production in the framework of the scenario. A forecast of vegetable production in the region as a whole and per capita, as well as their level of consumption, was made.

Authors: Kalininskaia Ekaterina Aleksandrovna