FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF SOWING AREAS AND YIELD OF MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN REGIONAL FOOD SYSTEMS

Issue № 8, 2026, article № 18, pages 209-220

Section: Land use and land relations

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКИ ПОСЕВНЫХ ПЛОЩАДЕЙ И УРОЖАЙНОСТЕЙ ОСНОВНЫХ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР В РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМАХ

Keywords: DYNAMIC APPROACH, CLIMATE SCENARIO, MODELING, CROP AREAS, FORECASTING, FOOD SYSTEMS, REGIONS, REGRESSION MODELS, CROPS, YIELD

Abstract: This article presents a system of models, an algorithm, and an information-analytical toolkit for determining key parameters of regional agrofood systems, such as sown areas, yields, and gross harvests of major agricultural crops over a forecast period extending to 2036. Modeling and forecasting the dynamics of key crop production indicators allows the results to be used to forecast the dynamics of the food system as a whole, including livestock production and the use of agricultural products for food purposes. The study is based on a dynamic approach. A key feature of the dynamic approach to system modeling is that it enables the study of system states depending on changes in resources, costs, profits, system efficiency, etc. over time. Furthermore, to forecast the dynamics in the model, it is necessary to provide input data on the parameters of past system states to obtain output values. The article demonstrates that, in general, the specification of regression models for sown areas may include other factors, but for all crops, the variable—revenue from product sales for the past period—is included in the arguments. The models consider the availability of technical resources to mechanize key production processes in crop production as resource constraints. Planned crop yield (as a lagged variable for grain corn) is a significant factor in all models. The input parameters in the yield models for major crops include forecast data from the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios, used by IPCC experts.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna