Pricing factors and their impact on resource provision of production in livestock industries: analysis and forecast

Issue № 9, 2018, article № 5, pages 37-46

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЦЕНОВЫЕ ФАКТОРЫ И ИХ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА РЕСУРСНОЕ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПРОДУКЦИИ В ОТРАСЛЯХ ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА: АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK SECTORS, PRICE, PRICE INDICES, FACTOR ANALYSIS, PRODUCTION VOLUMES, OREL REGION, DYNAMIC REGRESSION, FORECAST

Abstract: In the article the peculiarities of the growth of livestock production in the domestic agro-industrial complex from the point of view of the effect of price factors are considered. A comparative analysis of the dynamic series of price indices in related and interconnected branches of agricultural production, as well as factor analysis, with the purpose of determining the structure of the price effect. The decomposition of the time series ofproducer price indices in livestock production was made, based on this, a short-term analysis of the dynamics of this index for the next three years was made. With the help of dynamic regression, a short-term forecast for the production of the main livestock products in Russia and Orel region was made, taking into account changes in price dynamics in related industries, which provided the basis for giving recommendations for adjusting agricultural policies.

Authors: Alpatov Anton Viacheslavovich, Stavtsev Aleksandr Nikolaevich