MODELING THE ADAPTATION OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX TO IMPORT RESTRICTIONS: AN AGENT-BASED APPROACH BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 17, pages 201-215

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ АДАПТАЦИИ АПК К ИМПОРТНЫМ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯМ: АГЕНТ-ОРИЕНТИРОВАННЫЙ ПОДХОД НА ОСНОВЕ ТАБЛИЦ «ЗАТРАТЫ-ВЫПУСК»

Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, IMPORT RESTRICTIONS, AGENT-BASED MODELING, INPUT-OUTPUT BALANCE, INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, INTERSECTORAL LINKAGES, ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY, INVENTORIES, PRODUCTION CYCLES

Abstract: Against the backdrop of tightening external economic restrictions, growing uncertainty in international trade, and the transformation of resource supply channels, assessing the resilience of the agro-industrial complex to external shocks is becoming increasingly important. This is due to the fact that the agro-industrial complex not only ensures food production, but also functions as part of a broad system of intersectoral linkages that includes processing industries, chemicals, machinery manufacturing, logistics, and trade. This creates a need for analytical tools capable of examining the consequences of import restrictions for the agricultural sector as one of the key elements of the national economy. The article is devoted to the development of an agent-based dynamic model designed to analyze the adaptation of the agro-industrial complex to import restrictions. The model is based on an input-output table and takes into account inventories, production cycles, intersectoral linkages, as well as two adaptation mechanisms: short-term balancing of production linkages and more inertial import substitution. To assess the sensitivity of the agro-industrial complex to external economic shocks, computational experiments were conducted involving the successive shutdown of imports in individual sectors under two scenarios: with and without restrictions on production growth in the affected sector. It is shown that the response of the agro-industrial complex is determined not only by the condition of the agricultural sectors themselves, but also by the position of related industries within the system of intersectoral linkages. It is established that, in most cases, import restrictions do not lead to a noticeable change in the output of the agro-industrial complex; however, there are several sectors in which a decline in imports leads to the growth of the agro-industrial complex. These include agriculture, food processing, textile and leather production, chemical production, and the production of certain types of equipment. The results obtained may be used to assess the resilience of the agro-industrial complex to foreign trade shocks and to identify sectors that are critically important for its adaptation.

Authors: Ten Anatolii Dmitrievich