METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO EVALUATING INVESTMENT EFFECTIVENESS OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX DIGITALIZATION PROJECTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 10, pages 104-112

Section: Investment and innovation in agriculture

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРОЕКТОВ ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИИ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА В УСЛОВИЯХ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ

Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH, DIGITALIZATION, INVESTMENTS, ALGORITHM, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, NORMALIZATION OF INDICATORS, REGIONAL ECONOMY, NOVOSIBIRSK REGION

Abstract: In the context of the digital transformation of the agro-industrial complex, there is a need to develop methodological approaches to assessing the economic effectiveness of investments in digital technologies, taking into account regional specifics and uncertainty factors. The article substantiates the author's methodological approach to assessing the economic efficiency of digitalization of the agro-industrial complex of the region, based on scenario analysis and normalization of performance indicators. An eight-stage algorithm for the implementation of the approach is proposed, including the identification of key influencing factors, the formation of development scenarios (optimistic, basic, pessimistic), the calculation of dynamic performance indicators (NPV, IRR, PP, ROI), normalization of indicators, expert assessment of their significance, calculation of a complex integral indicator, determination of the probability of occurrence of scenarios and calculation of the expected economic effect. The approach was tested using the example of the Novosibirsk region, which made it possible to quantify the effectiveness of digitalization investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The developed methodology ensures an objective assessment of projects, minimizing the risks of making suboptimal management decisions and maximizing the socio-economic effect of the digital transformation of the regional agro-industrial complex. The advantage of the approach is to overcome the incommensurability of traditional financial indicators through rationing and the formation of an integral criterion, which increases the reliability of investment decisions in the agricultural sector.

Authors: Chernyakov Vladislav Mikhailovich, Kuznetsova Inna Gennadevna