DIRECTIONS OF TRANSFORMATION TO TRANSFORM THE ARCHITECTURE OF STATE SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF A TIGHT MONETARY POLICY

Issue № 6, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-16

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ АРХИТЕКТУРЫ ГОСПОДДЕРЖКИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА В УСЛОВИЯХ ЖЕСТКОЙ ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

Keywords: GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, MONETARY POLICY, INVESTMENT PAUSE, COST-PUSH INFLATION, KEY RATE, DIGITAL FINANCIAL ASSETS, SUBSIDY EFFECTIVENESS

Abstract: In the context of the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy and global market turbulence, domestic agriculture faces the challenge of an "investment pause." The current state support architecture, based on interest rate subsidies, is becoming less effective when the key rate exceeds the industry's average profitability. This discussion-based study aims to identify structural imbalances in the mechanism for financing agricultural investment and to justify the need to transform the state support model from a credit-oriented one to a direct investment-oriented one. It has been established that the current macroeconomic model is characterized by a disconnect between money supply growth, real GDP, and the Central Bank of Russia's key interest rate, leading to an overconcentration of profits in the financial sector while yields in agriculture and other sectors of the real economy stagnate. A «negative investment scissors» effect has been identified: rising production costs outpace indexation of state support, while «cost-push inflation» makes borrowed capital unavailable for the modernization of fixed assets. Bank lending has been shown to substitute for equity, covering cash gaps without stimulating capital expenditure. The study substantiates the need for a transition to a dual-loop monetary policy system and a paradigm shift in state support: replacing interest rate subsidies with direct CAPEX grants, and actively implementing digital financial assets and «colored» money for food sovereignty projects.

Authors: Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, Zdorovets IUliia Ivanovna