FORECAST SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAIRY SUBCOMPLEX OF THE NORTH-WESTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT

Issue № 5, 2026, article № 25, pages 258-268

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ СЦЕНАРИИ РАЗВИТИЯ МОЛОЧНОПРОДУКТОВОГО ПОДКОМПЛЕКСА СЕВЕРО-ЗАПАДНОГО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ОКРУГА

Keywords: AUTOREGRESSION, AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENT, HOLT&, #39, S METHOD, DAIRY SUBCOMPLEX, COW PRODUCTIVITY, MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING, DYNAMICS SERIES, NORTHWESTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT, AGRICULTURAL LANDS, TREND EQUATION, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Abstract: The article is devoted to the issues of statistical forecasting of the development of the dairy subcomplex in the North-Western Federal District (hereinafter NWFD) in the medium term. Using the exponential smoothing method, the Holt method, as well as autoregressive forecasting, we economically justified various scenarios for the dynamics of the main production indicators in dairy cattle breeding in the Northwestern Federal District. As a result of using statistically significant mathematical models, it was revealed that milk production volumes will grow at a relatively slow pace. The main problem of the dairy subcomplex of the Northwestern Federal District is the reduction of livestock, which at the moment can be compensated by a significant increase in animal productivity. We have concluded that the main characteristic of dairy cattle breeding in the Northwestern Federal District is the intensification of production, which for many years has been implemented primarily through the use of innovative technologies and production automation.

Authors: Braginets IUrii Nikolaevich