ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL SHOCKS

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 20, pages 220-231

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: К ВОПРОСУ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ ШОКОВ

Keywords: ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, GLOBAL SHOCKS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, PRICE INDEX, FOOD SECURITY, RAW MATERIALS ECONOMY, TECHNOLOGICAL POLARIZATION, RISK MANAGEMENT

Abstract: This study proposes a new approach to analyzing the impact of global shocks on Russian agriculture. Unlike the traditional adaptive response paradigm, shocks are viewed as a diagnostic tool revealing latent structural imbalances in the sector. Key global shocks for the period 2014-2024 were identified and classified. An analysis of agricultural production volumes by food product revealed a technological gap between the livestock and crop production subsectors, manifested in different rates of productivity growth under the shocks studied. Foreign trade statistics revealed the sector's raw materials focus, while price index analysis revealed the development of a persistent gap between administratively controlled selling prices and the uncontrolled growth of imported input costs. The reviewed data on investment in the sector highlighted the problem of its declining share in total investment, which has progressively manifested itself with each new crisis and has signaled a shift in the investment model. A comprehensive analysis allowed us to classify the identified shifts, identifying their actual manifestations and long-term consequences. Based on this, key areas for potential reforms for the further development of the agricultural sector were identified, with the state as the primary initiator.

Authors: Matherova Elena Sergeevna, Nuriev Ilshat Gabdelfartovich, Sharafullina Rosalia Radmirovna, Baykova Elvira Rafaelevna, Bolgova Elena Vladimirovna, Bolgov Sergey Anatolyevich