THE IMPACT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSURE ON AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES IN THE WORLD

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 2, pages 17-26

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ ПЕРЕКРЫТИЯ ОРМУЗСКОГО ПРОЛИВА НА ЦЕНЫ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В МИРЕ

Keywords: STRAIT OF HORMUZ, OIL PRICES, FOOD SECURITY, FERTILIZERS, GRAIN MARKETS, LOGISTICS SHOCK, PRICE TRANSMISSION, GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Abstract: The article analyzes the mechanisms of transmission of a geopolitical shock in the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global agricultural commodity markets. The study identifies the channels through which a sharp reduction in the transit of oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizers through the strait translates into increased production costs and higher wholesale prices for grains, oilseeds, and food products overall. Based on official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), it is demonstrated that approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day—around 20% of global consumption—are transported through the strait, along with nearly 20% of the global liquefied natural gas market, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production. The study analytically distinguishes between short-term effects (price shocks and supply chain disruptions) and medium-term effects (logistical restructuring, producer adaptation, and increased food vulnerability). It is established that net food-importing countries and developing economies bear disproportionately high costs due to the combined rise in energy, fertilizer, and freight prices. The paper concludes that there is a systemic interdependence between energy and food security, necessitating proactive international response mechanisms.

Authors: Zakarchevskii Oleg Vladimirovich, Malykha Ekaterina Fedorovna, Sergeeva Natalia Viktorovna, Limbir Yulia Lvovna, Hashir Esma Aslanovna