ENSURING GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN IRAN

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-16

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ЭСКАЛАЦИИ КОНФЛИКТА В ИРАНЕ

Keywords: AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL, MIDDLE EAST, BRICS, GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY IMPORTS, IRAN, STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AGRICULTURE, EXPORTS

Abstract: The escalation of the conflict in Iran and the subsequent blocking of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 had a significant and multifaceted impact on the global economy, with consequences for the energy and agricultural sectors. The Strait of Hormuz is a critically important maritime artery through which about a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade passes, as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), mineral fertilizers and food. Disruption of stability in this region inevitably leads to higher energy prices, disruptions in supply chains, and, as a result, higher food production costs and a threat to global food security. In the event of a further escalation of the conflict, the global oil market and existing transport and logistics corridors will require significant restructuring. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp jump in global energy prices, which has a direct and indirect impact on the agricultural sector. The Persian Gulf countries, being major producers of oil, gas and fertilizers, are experiencing a direct impact of the conflict on their economies and export opportunities. Countries with high dependence on imported energy and fertilizers, as well as limited opportunities to subsidize the agricultural sector, found themselves in the most vulnerable position. The countries where humanitarian problems are likely to worsen are Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan and Lebanon. According to the UN World Food Program, there were more than 318 million people in Iran before the escalation of the conflict. They have already experienced severe food shortages, which undermines efforts to ensure global food security. Russia's trade relations with the countries of the Middle East account for a significant share of Russia's trade turnover, and the trade in agricultural products and foodstuffs between Russia and Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East affects the further development of Russian-Iranian trade and economic cooperation in the field of agriculture, namely, increasing exports of agri-food products, prospects for the implementation of transport and logistics infrastructure projects, in particular the use of the international transport corridor "North-South". In this regard, the study of the consequences of the escalation of the conflict in Iran on global food security in connection with Russia's national interests is the most relevant.

Authors: Paptsov Andrei Gennadevich, Prokhorenko Oksana Sergeevna, Tregubov Vladimir Andreevich