FOOD SECURITY THROUGH IMPORT SUBSTITUTION: AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION TO SANCTIONS RESTRICTIONS

Issue № 2, 2026, article № 4, pages 38-45

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ ЧЕРЕЗ ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЕ: АДАПТАЦИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА К САНКЦИОННЫМ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЯМ

Keywords: ADAPTABILITY COEFFICIENT, AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION, AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SECURITY INDEX, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, INTEGRAL IMPORT SUBSTITUTION INDEX, LOCALIZATION OF PRODUCTION, SANCTIONS RESTRICTIONS, SEED MATERIAL, SELF-SUFFICIENCY, TECHNOLOGICAL INDEPENDENCE

Abstract: The relevance of the study is determined by the need to ensure food security of the Russian Federation under unprecedented sanctions restrictions introduced since 2022. Sanctions pressure has affected critically important links of the agro-industrial complex: supplies of seed material, agricultural machinery, plant protection products, veterinary drugs. The research problem lies in the absence of comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impact of import substitution processes on the country's food security under structural transformations of the agricultural sector. The aim of the work is to develop an economic-mathematical model of the relationship between import substitution indicators and food security to substantiate directions for adapting agricultural production to sanctions restrictions. Research methods include systematic analysis of statistical data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia for 2022-2024, development of integral indices of import substitution, technological independence and food security, construction of a multifactor regression model. Research results demonstrate an increase in the integral index of import substitution by 22.3% over the period 2022-2024 with a simultaneous increase in the seed material import substitution coefficient from 58.3% to 72.4%, agricultural machinery localization from 74.2% to 83.0%, plant protection products substitution from 42.7% to 58.6%. The constructed econometric model (R² = 0.823, F-statistic = 38.72) confirms a statistically significant positive dependence of food security on three factors: integral index of import substitution, adaptability coefficient of production capacities and technological independence index. Key conclusions indicate the formation of a sustainable trajectory for replacing critical imports with domestic analogues, achieving threshold values of self-sufficiency for main types of food established by the Food Security Doctrine. Practical significance of the work lies in substantiating a system of coordinated state support measures for import substitution in the agro-industrial complex.

Authors: Petrova Olga Alexandrovna, Savina Svetlana Vladimirovna, Fomicheva Tatiana Leonidovna, Mustafayeva Sima Radzheddinovna