PROSPECTS FOR THE EXPANSION OF DOMESTIC AGRO-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS INTO FOREIGN MARKETS

Issue № 1, 2026, article № 4, pages 31-39

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЭКСПАНСИИ ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА НА ЗАРУБЕЖНЫЕ РЫНКИ

Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORTS, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING, EXPORT POLICY, EXPORT POTENTIAL, FOOD SECURITY, FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, GRAIN CROPS, SANCTIONS RESTRICTIONS, TAX REGULATION

Abstract: The relevance of the study is determined by the need to adapt the Russian agro-industrial complex to changing conditions of foreign economic activity under the influence of unprecedented sanctions restrictions of 2022-2024. The aim of the study is to develop an economic-mathematical model for assessing the potential opportunities to increase exports of agricultural products of the Russian Federation through diversification of the geography of foreign trade partners. The research methodology is based on the application of correlation-regression analysis, multivariate statistical data processing methods, construction of integral indices of export potential, analysis of dynamic series of foreign trade turnover for the period 2022-2024. The information base consisted of data from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Center "Agroexport", materials of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, statistics of Russia's foreign trade partners. The results of the study are presented by the author's economic-mathematical model of dependence of potential opportunities for export expansion on three key factors: the index of diversification of the geographical structure of exports, the coefficient of substitution of traditional markets with new supply directions, the index of logistical accessibility of target markets. A statistically significant dependence of export potential on the degree of diversification of trading partners with a coefficient of determination of 0.847 has been proven. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of applying the developed model to forecast export revenues of the agro-industrial complex under various scenarios for the development of foreign economic relations under ongoing sanctions restrictions.

Authors: Suglobov Alexander Evgenievich, Petrov Alexander Mikhailovich, Kleshchev Сергей Konstantinovich