FARMGATE PRICES ANALYSIS IN SCENARIOS OF SUPPORT FOR INVESTMENTS IN COW MILK PRODUCTION

Issue № 12, 2025, article № 8, pages 56-67

Section: Investment and innovation in agriculture

Language: Russian

Original language title: АНАЛИЗ ЦЕН ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ В СЦЕНАРИЯХ ПОДДЕРЖКИ ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ В МОЛОЧНОЕ СКОТОВОДСТВО

Keywords: GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICES, INVESTMENT, MODEL, DAIRY FARMING, AGRICULTURE, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE RELATIONS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCER PRICES, EFFICIENCY

Abstract: This article examines the pricing situation in dairy farming under various investment support scenarios, using economic and mathematical modeling. The study's goals and objectives are achieved by comparing scenarios for increasing state support for milk production and consumer demand with a baseline scenario, which maintains the support mechanisms used in 2020-2022, across Russian regions. The authors examined 15 scenarios and selected the scenario that provides the highest level of state support for agricultural producers to increase their dairy cattle population (+50%) and the maximum increase in demand (+20%) as the most informative. The analysis revealed underutilized competitive advantages in the dairy industry in some federal subjects. It was found that state support has a definite impact on the price advantage of the dairy subsector in inter-industry competition within agriculture. A study of the spatial distribution of changes in milk producer prices revealed that the zone experiencing the greatest price increases due to state support measures envisaged under the scenario under consideration encompasses the southeast and south of European Russia, as well as the Omsk Region. The authors identified the following key trends: milk producer prices are not falling, but rather rising as state support aimed at increasing cow herds increases; the open market for milk and its processed products to imports effectively blocks incentives to increase domestic milk production through state support.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich, Maslova Vlada Viacheslavovna, Zaruk Natalia Fedorovna