METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTION OF VEGETABLES

Issue № 11, 2025, article № 16, pages 152-159

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ОВОЩЕЙ

Keywords: FORECASTING, VEGETABLE GROWING, NETWORK MODEL, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING, MANAGEMENT DECISIONS, INNOVATIVE APPROACH, FOOD SECURITY, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, AGENT-BASED MODELING, AND MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION

Abstract: The study is devoted to the development and testing of an improved methodology for forecasting the production of fresh vegetables, based on the principles of network modeling and the analysis of market participants' interactions. An economic and mathematical method is proposed that combines network effects and allows for multi-variant calculations that take into account both external factors (macroeconomic conditions, government policies, and climatic conditions) and internal characteristics of enterprises (technological potential and financial and economic indicators). The methodology is based on a system of mathematical equations with a matrix of influence coefficients, which is formed based on the analysis of time series and expert assessments, which ensures the adaptability and flexibility of the model. Three scenarios for the development of the industry have been considered: the basic scenario, the optimistic scenario, and the pessimistic scenario, which allow for assessing risks and opportunities in changing market conditions. The results of the model's testing based on a company in the Voronezh region demonstrate.

Authors: Zakshevskaia Elena Vasilevna, Surdin Andrey Nikolaevich