ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION PROCESSES ON THE LABOR POTENTIAL OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Issue № 8, 2025, article № 21, pages 222-230

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ МИГРАЦИОННЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ НА ТРУДОВОЙ ПОТЕНЦИАЛ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА

Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, LABOR SHORTAGE, EMPLOYMENT, INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES, SKILL COMPOSITION, MIGRATION PROCESSES, PANEL DATA, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, LABOR MIGRATION, LABOR POTENTIAL, WAGE LEVEL, FIXED EFFECTS, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract: Labor potential is a key factor in the sustainability and competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex. Migration processes, including labor, forced and seasonal migration, have a complex and often contradictory impact on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of this potential, which requires in-depth analysis to develop an effective HR policy. There is significant uncertainty in understanding the degree and direction of the influence of various types of migration on the key parameters of the labor potential of the agro-industrial complex, such as the number of employees, age structure, skill level, labor productivity, wage level and labor shortage. The lack of quantitative estimates of this impact complicates the development of targeted regulatory measures. To conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of various types of migration, namely labor and forced, on the parameters of the labor potential of regional agro-industrial complexes of the Russian Federation. The study is based on the analysis of panel data on the regions of the Russian Federation for the period from 2010 to 2023. To assess the impact of migration, an econometric model with fixed effects (to account for regional specifics) and instrumental variables (to solve the endogeneity problem) was used. A statistically significant positive impact of migration growth on the employment dynamics and overall labor potential of the agro-industrial complex was revealed, especially pronounced in regions with negative demographic trends. Labor migration has a significant positive impact on filling vacancies and reducing the severity of the personnel shortage, but at the same time has a negative impact on the level of wages of low-skilled workers. The impact of labor migration on the long-term dynamics of the qualification structure of workers in the agro-industrial complex is ambiguous. Forced migration demonstrates a short-term negative impact on the stability of the personnel structure of the agro-industrial complex. The results emphasize the ambiguous and multifaceted nature of the impact of migration on the labor potential of the agro-industrial complex. To improve the efficiency of using labor resources, a differentiated migration and personnel policy is needed that takes into account the type of migration flows, the specifics of regions (demographic trends, structure of the agro-industrial complex) and target parameters of labor potential.

Authors: Imideeva Irina Vladimirovna