IMPORT OF CORN SEEDS TO RUSSIA: DYNAMICS, STRUCTURE, IMPACT ON YIELDS AND PROSPECTS FOR IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

Issue № 6, 2025, article № 3, pages 24-34

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИМПОРТ СЕМЯН КУКУРУЗЫ В РОССИЮ: ДИНАМИКА, СТРУКТУРА, ВЛИЯНИЕ НА УРОЖАЙНОСТЬ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЯ

Keywords: IMPORT DYNAMICS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, SOWN AREAS, FOOD SECURITY, CORN SEEDS, SEED PRODUCTION, IMPORT STRUCTURE, YIELD

Abstract: The study analyzes the import of corn seeds into Russia, its dynamics, structure, and impact on yield from 2001 to 2024. The main focus is on the changes that occurred after 2022, including the introduction of import quotas from unfriendly countries. The research uses data from the Russian Federal Customs Service, the UN, and EMISS, as well as regression analysis methods to assess the elasticity of imports based on the ruble exchange rate and sown areas, and correlation analysis to examine the dependence of yield on imported seeds. The results show that the volume of corn seed imports over 20 years has tripled, with 70% of supplies before 2022 coming from unfriendly countries (France, Hungary, Romania). In 2023, imports from these countries decreased by 60%, and starting in 2024, a quota of 5 thousand tons was introduced, which should lead to a further decline in imports. The analysis of rolling elasticities revealed that before 2010, imports were highly dependent on the ruble exchange rate (elasticity of -8%), but after 2015, its influence decreased to -0.4%. At the same time, the elasticity of imports relative to sown areas increased significantly. Testing the hypothesis about the impact of imported seeds on yield did not confirm a significant relationship, indicating the role of other factors. The main findings of the study can be used to assess the prospects for import substitution and the adaptation of the agricultural sector to new conditions.

Authors: Ten Anatolii Dmitrievich, Martynenko Alexander Valerievich