METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN FORECASTING AGRI-FOOD ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Issue № 12, 2024, article № 12, pages 126-137

Section:

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ ИСКУССТВЕННЫХ НЕЙРОННЫХ СЕТЕЙ В ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИ АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ СИСТЕМ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, AGRI-FOOD MARKET, FORECASTING, PRINCIPLES, METHODS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, MACHINE LEARNING, NEURAL NETWORKS

Abstract: The aim of the study was to systematize methodological approaches to forecasting the development of agro-food economic systems and substantiate the directions of their development based on the use of artificial neural networks. The authors delineated the concepts of "forecasting" and "foresight", highlighted the signs in which a statement about the future can be called a forecast, clarified the universal principles of research on economic systems, formulated specific principles of forecasting, including the principles of: purposefulness, accuracy (adequacy), relevance, certainty, interpretability, flexibility, alternative and cost-effectiveness. Intuitive and formalized forecasting methods are systematized, and the place of artificial neural networks in this system is justified. The advantages and disadvantages of using traditional formalized methods and artificial neural networks for forecasting the development of agro-food economic systems are considered in detail, the expediency of their use in terms of compliance with the principles of forecasting is substantiated. The basic provisions of the organization of the forecasting process based on the deployment of artificial neural networks are formulated, practical aspects of the possibility of using a mathematical algorithm for modeling the development of agri-food systems are considered, as well as conditions for improving information infrastructure in order to ensure the availability of data and technologies for their processing.

Authors: Dubovitskii Aleksandr Alekseevich, Klimentova Elvira Anatolevna, Feсkovich Igor Vladimirovich