FORECAST OF ACHIEVEMENT OF THE THRESHOLD LEVEL OF FOOD INDEPENDENCE IN RUSSIA IN FRUIT AND BERRIES

Issue № 6, 2024, article № 18, pages 177-183

Section: Economics of agribusiness sectors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ДОСТИЖЕНИЯ ПОРОГОВОГО УРОВНЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ НЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ РОССИИ ПО ФРУКТАМ И ЯГОДАМ

Keywords: DOCTRINE OF FOOD SECURITY, FRIENDLY IMPORTS, FOOD INDEPENDENCE, SELF-SUFFICIENCY, IMPORT FORMATION, CONTROLLED IMPORTS

Abstract: The article made a forecast of achieving the threshold level of Food Independence of Russia for fruits and berries using various analysis tools. A comparative analysis of the reliability of the approximation of various trend lines was carried out. Using the trend line with the highest average probability of approximation, a forecast was made that allows us to establish a calendar year in which, as the leading one, an excellent threshold level of the “Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation” for fruits and berries will occur. A forecast was made for achieving the threshold value of Russia's Food Independence for fruits and berries based on extrapolation of indicators of growth in self-sufficiency over five- and ten-year periods. The possibilities of chronologically earlier achievements of food security in the conditions of the formation of control and/or “friendly” imports, previously undefined in the academic environment, are analyzed. A review of the possibilities of creating controlled and friendly imports within the framework of Russia’s membership in various integration formations was carried out. The article is aimed at solving scientific problems of accelerating the achievement of the threshold value of food independence in the most lagging position of food - fruits and berries, which may arouse interest among students and teachers of economic universities and departments, researchers, government officials, as well as other persons dealing with problems food supply.

Authors: Melnikov Boris Nikolaevich