INCOMES AND NUMBER OF FARMS AND SOLE PROPRIETORS: TRENDS AND FORECAST

Issue № 5, 2024, article № 20, pages 189-198

Language: Russian

Original language title: ДОХОДЫ И ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬ К(Ф)Х И ИП: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ПРОГНОЗ

Keywords: INCOME OF FARMS, FORECAST, CONSOLIDATION PROCESSES, NUMBER OF FARMS

Abstract: Peasant (farm) farms (hereinafter referred to as K(F)X) represent a special group of agricultural producers, which account for a significant part of the volume of agricultural products produced. In addition to the production function, K(F)X play an important role in the social development of the village. In this regard, the study of the dynamics of the number and income of farms is of great scientific and practical interest. Agricultural census data and ACCOR statistics indicate a decrease in the number of farms, while at the same time there are processes of their enlargement (areas of agricultural land; cattle per farm). The first reason for the decline is the reduction in the number of rural population, the second reason is the unfavorable business conditions compared to agricultural organizations, including difficulties in obtaining preferential financial resources. The analysis of trends and factors of the decline in the number of K(F)X allowed the authors to make forecast estimates of the number and average incomes of K(F)X for the period from 2024 to 2030. In accordance with the fulfilled forecasts of the number of K(F)X and IP in the medium term, the number of registered farms will decrease to 107 thousand farms by 2030. Along with the decrease in the number of farms, the processes of their consolidation and profitability growth are underway, which is associated with the need to strengthen their own positions in competition with agricultural enterprises. To calculate the average incomes of K(F)X, the ratio of the volume of agricultural production in K(F)X and IP in actual prices to the number of farms was used. The analysis showed that, calculated in this way, the deflated average income per farm for the period from 2001 to 2023 increased from 419 thousand rubles to 4536.8 thousand rubles (or 10.8 times). In accordance with the fulfilled forecasts of income of K(F)X and IP in the medium term, the average income of a farm by 2030 will increase by 1.23 times to 5.6 million rubles.

Authors: Borodin Konstantin Grigorevich, Frolova Elena IUrevna, Zadorozhnaia Elena Aleksandrovna