METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATERIAL AND TECHNICAL BASE OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Issue № 2, 2024, article № 4, pages 37-44

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ РАЗВИТИЯ МАТЕРИАЛЬНО-ТЕХНИЧЕСКОЙ БАЗЫ АПК

Keywords: RELIABILITY OF FORECASTS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, INPUT-OUTPUT BALANCE, PREDICTIVE EXTRAPOLATION, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, AGRICULTURE, TREND EQUATION

Abstract: The paper considers methods of forecasting the development of industries included in the structure of the agro-industrial complex in order to identify the most optimal way of forecasting. The most frequently used methods are highlighted and their effectiveness in forecasting the development of sectors of the national economy is analyzed. The limitations of the most used method, extrapolation, are noted, which consists in the problem of obtaining promising estimates for independent variables, and options for its solution are considered. The methods of forecasting the development of industries based on the establishment of statistical dependencies are investigated. The possibility of developing a system of comprehensive forecasts of the development of the national economy without laborious calculations on the interconnection of industries is also being considered. As a result, the analysis of models that are most suitable for forecasting quasi-equilibrium economic structures is presented.

Authors: Khashir Aslan Azmetovich